WALD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waldencast PLC has demonstrated notable financial strength through its Obagi Medical and Milk Makeup segments, with Milk's adjusted gross margin expanding by 280 basis points year-over-year to 67.7%. The company's growth trajectory is highlighted by a 12.8% year-over-year revenue increase in its Obagi Medical segment, surpassing estimates and showcasing resilience in its direct-to-consumer and international channels. Furthermore, Milk Makeup experienced a reacceleration in growth of 10.1% in Q3, indicating robust performance despite challenges in distribution, reinforcing optimism for future profitability.

Waldencast PLC has reported declining financial performance, with total sales in the fourth quarter falling 0.1% to $72.0 million, below both internal estimates and consensus forecasts. The company's consolidated adjusted gross margin has significantly contracted, decreasing 310 basis points year-over-year to 71.9%, primarily due to inventory-related adjustments at Obagi and pressures from increased holiday promotions at Milk Makeup. Additionally, the firm has reduced its fiscal year 2025 outlook, projecting flat revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin that reflects continued margin pressure, which contributes to a negative outlook for the stock.